In the same news linked above, I also found out that Playboy Argentina published a special edition in October which cover showed...hottest argentine girls on FACEBOOK!
Enjoy...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Playboy News!
I read this morning this news about how internet is "killing" the TV business. In fact, according to different sources, advertising expenses (yes, as we use it in finance accounting) were larger in internet than in TV in 2008; moreover, breaking news are always post first in the internet than broadcast in TV and soap operas are becoming available via internet streaming with the audience choosing the "finale" of each chapter...
In the same news linked above, I also found out that Playboy Argentina published a special edition in October which cover showed...hottest argentine girls on FACEBOOK!
Enjoy...
In the same news linked above, I also found out that Playboy Argentina published a special edition in October which cover showed...hottest argentine girls on FACEBOOK!
Enjoy...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Fever!
Yes, during the last three days I have been sick and bored all the time. I hope to be good by tomorrow and then be able to go out on Sunday for a walk at least. In this three days I have missed the following classes:
- Managerial Economics (x2)
- Information Systems (x2)
- Financial Accounting
- Quantitative Analysis
As I just mentioned it is unfortunately really boring because I am not able to do nothing but watching TV (which I can't stand more than 1 hour), sleeping (which make me feel as a lazy person), or reading (and I cannot concentrate for more than 25 minutes).
Apart from that, after getting an Ibuprofeno 600 I was able to deliver my assignment for Information System on Wednesday, the same that was posted below. I did not take that medicine again because I am not very used to take that kind of medicine (horse medicine) and my stomach was in pain during the night.
Nothing else to say. Well, just one more thing, I would loved to have this other kind of fever instead.
- Managerial Economics (x2)
- Information Systems (x2)
- Financial Accounting
- Quantitative Analysis
As I just mentioned it is unfortunately really boring because I am not able to do nothing but watching TV (which I can't stand more than 1 hour), sleeping (which make me feel as a lazy person), or reading (and I cannot concentrate for more than 25 minutes).
Apart from that, after getting an Ibuprofeno 600 I was able to deliver my assignment for Information System on Wednesday, the same that was posted below. I did not take that medicine again because I am not very used to take that kind of medicine (horse medicine) and my stomach was in pain during the night.
Nothing else to say. Well, just one more thing, I would loved to have this other kind of fever instead.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
You Blogger, Get Your Pulitzer!
I just found this news (in Spanish) which says that from now on bloggers will be considered as candidates for the Pulitzer Prize.
Vichy Case
This is a case we had to prepare for our Information System class at IE.
France Vichy Cosmetics: To Blog Or Not To Blog?
Situation – Context
On April 27, 2005 Vichy Laboratories launched in France a blog called “Dairy of My Skin” with the goal of promoting a new anti-age product: Peel Abrasion. The blog would act as a marketing tool where “Claire”, a false character, talks to women about common wrinkles worries.
“Dairy of My Skin” was not Vichy’s first experience using blogs a marketing tool. In February 2005, Vichy Korea ran two blogs with successful results.
Vichy hired the advertising agency Euro RSCG4 to implement the “blog” marketing plan. This multinational agency had a department specialized in Digital Marketing.
Problems
“Dairy of My Skin” was highly criticized by bloggers, marketing, and blog marketing specialists. The main causes of the criticisms were:
- Writing style: “Claire” was clearly not writing the blog but a designer was in charge of doing so.
- Lack of spontaneity: everything in the blog was programmed and done in advance.
Bloggers negative comments about Vichy’s blog disseminated quickly around the French blogosphere.
Even after the apologize of Delphine, product manager of Vichy in France, the news spread to national press: Le Monde criticized the cosmetic company for using blogs to communicate with costumers.
Alternative Solutions
Vichy France has to decide about a response strategy. Should Vichy act nationwide using traditional communication methods or new ones? Should Vichy let the time go by so that this “problem” is forgotten? What to do with the blog?
No doubt, the “Dairy of My Skin” experience was not a happy one. There are different reasons that Vichy should adjust to avoid this kind of failure. Moreover, the response given by product manager Delphine in the blog was not convincing and bloggers wondered whether Delphine was a true character (another Claire?).
I will mention a list of alternative solutions for the case:
- Avoid using blogs for future marketing plans and use traditional channels of communication.
- Organize press interviews for Vichy executives where they can talk about the company strategy and briefly refer to the blog issue.
- Discontinue “Dairy of My Skin”.
- Continue with marketing plans that include blogs but considering the mistakes from this experience.
- In relation to the last alternative, ask for advise to Vichy Korea, which was very successful with its blogs experiences.
- Take advise from bloggers to develop and run future blogs.
My Choice
Rather than accepting just one of the alternatives, I would combine most of them.
First, I think that Vichy should not abandon its idea of using blogs as a marketing tool and as a means to communicate with costumers. In fact, as mentioned in the case, most companies are creating blogs to promote products and interact with costumers.
Asking for advise to Vichy Korea would be a good idea. Although it is very possible that costumers differ greatly between the two markets, Vichy Korea was able to run blogs successfully and, apparently, without major criticisms.
I will also ask for advise to experienced bloggers in order to find out how they relate to each other and how they communicate with followers.
Then, I would discontinue “Dairy of My Skin”. It would be very difficult to build trust with costumers through this blog and change perceptions coming from them, from the press, and from bloggers.
Finally, I do think that Vichy should explain the reasons behind its bad experience with “Dairy of My Skin”. By doing so, the company admits its mistakes before costumers and commits to avoid future similar issues. In my opinion, the best way to do it is through press interviews in which company executives talk about different subjects, including the blog failure and how they will deal with it in the future.
France Vichy Cosmetics: To Blog Or Not To Blog?
Situation – Context
On April 27, 2005 Vichy Laboratories launched in France a blog called “Dairy of My Skin” with the goal of promoting a new anti-age product: Peel Abrasion. The blog would act as a marketing tool where “Claire”, a false character, talks to women about common wrinkles worries.
“Dairy of My Skin” was not Vichy’s first experience using blogs a marketing tool. In February 2005, Vichy Korea ran two blogs with successful results.
Vichy hired the advertising agency Euro RSCG4 to implement the “blog” marketing plan. This multinational agency had a department specialized in Digital Marketing.
Problems
“Dairy of My Skin” was highly criticized by bloggers, marketing, and blog marketing specialists. The main causes of the criticisms were:
- Writing style: “Claire” was clearly not writing the blog but a designer was in charge of doing so.
- Lack of spontaneity: everything in the blog was programmed and done in advance.
Bloggers negative comments about Vichy’s blog disseminated quickly around the French blogosphere.
Even after the apologize of Delphine, product manager of Vichy in France, the news spread to national press: Le Monde criticized the cosmetic company for using blogs to communicate with costumers.
Alternative Solutions
Vichy France has to decide about a response strategy. Should Vichy act nationwide using traditional communication methods or new ones? Should Vichy let the time go by so that this “problem” is forgotten? What to do with the blog?
No doubt, the “Dairy of My Skin” experience was not a happy one. There are different reasons that Vichy should adjust to avoid this kind of failure. Moreover, the response given by product manager Delphine in the blog was not convincing and bloggers wondered whether Delphine was a true character (another Claire?).
I will mention a list of alternative solutions for the case:
- Avoid using blogs for future marketing plans and use traditional channels of communication.
- Organize press interviews for Vichy executives where they can talk about the company strategy and briefly refer to the blog issue.
- Discontinue “Dairy of My Skin”.
- Continue with marketing plans that include blogs but considering the mistakes from this experience.
- In relation to the last alternative, ask for advise to Vichy Korea, which was very successful with its blogs experiences.
- Take advise from bloggers to develop and run future blogs.
My Choice
Rather than accepting just one of the alternatives, I would combine most of them.
First, I think that Vichy should not abandon its idea of using blogs as a marketing tool and as a means to communicate with costumers. In fact, as mentioned in the case, most companies are creating blogs to promote products and interact with costumers.
Asking for advise to Vichy Korea would be a good idea. Although it is very possible that costumers differ greatly between the two markets, Vichy Korea was able to run blogs successfully and, apparently, without major criticisms.
I will also ask for advise to experienced bloggers in order to find out how they relate to each other and how they communicate with followers.
Then, I would discontinue “Dairy of My Skin”. It would be very difficult to build trust with costumers through this blog and change perceptions coming from them, from the press, and from bloggers.
Finally, I do think that Vichy should explain the reasons behind its bad experience with “Dairy of My Skin”. By doing so, the company admits its mistakes before costumers and commits to avoid future similar issues. In my opinion, the best way to do it is through press interviews in which company executives talk about different subjects, including the blog failure and how they will deal with it in the future.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Newspaper vs. Digital News
Thinking of a new post, I decided to write about a new dilemma some people, including me, may be facing: comparing your preference between newspapers and digital news, what do you choose? And what do you think it is more convenient?
I tend to read news from the internet from various reasons: they are constantly updated and it is a must to check them whenever I get online, they are cheaper (I do not have to pay to read news from most newspapers worldwide), and I can check news on different topics, from finance to sports to politics, from different sources and countries, among others. I admitted I began to read news online when I moved abroad and this way was the only one to find out what was going on in my country. Now, I just do it because, it is convenient.
However, if you ask me what I prefer, I answer newspapers. One can take them everywhere and, at least in my case, there are few things as good as reading your newspapers on a Sunday morning...in addition, I find specific news easier than in their digital version.
As this old article reflects, digital news have been taking customers out of traditional newspapers, and this is why the later have had to create their own websites. Many times I wonder why I have to pay for a newspaper while I can get the same info on its website for free; moreover, I always ask myself whether there is sense in reading a newspaper in the evening or at night or it is just better to check tomorrow newspapers news in the web (and most of the times I just keep on reading the newspaper at that time of the day).
Is the traditional newspaper going to disappear? Really hard to say though new generations are so into technology that they will hardly bother to go and get the newspapers from outside, not to mention why they should pay (same dilemma for me, although I still pay...). I think newspapers are well-aware of this tendency and are doing improvements to change their business models (well, I am a MBA student and am supposed to use these kind of words!) and satisfy every market getting the best from them.
I tend to read news from the internet from various reasons: they are constantly updated and it is a must to check them whenever I get online, they are cheaper (I do not have to pay to read news from most newspapers worldwide), and I can check news on different topics, from finance to sports to politics, from different sources and countries, among others. I admitted I began to read news online when I moved abroad and this way was the only one to find out what was going on in my country. Now, I just do it because, it is convenient.
However, if you ask me what I prefer, I answer newspapers. One can take them everywhere and, at least in my case, there are few things as good as reading your newspapers on a Sunday morning...in addition, I find specific news easier than in their digital version.
As this old article reflects, digital news have been taking customers out of traditional newspapers, and this is why the later have had to create their own websites. Many times I wonder why I have to pay for a newspaper while I can get the same info on its website for free; moreover, I always ask myself whether there is sense in reading a newspaper in the evening or at night or it is just better to check tomorrow newspapers news in the web (and most of the times I just keep on reading the newspaper at that time of the day).
Is the traditional newspaper going to disappear? Really hard to say though new generations are so into technology that they will hardly bother to go and get the newspapers from outside, not to mention why they should pay (same dilemma for me, although I still pay...). I think newspapers are well-aware of this tendency and are doing improvements to change their business models (well, I am a MBA student and am supposed to use these kind of words!) and satisfy every market getting the best from them.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
My "new" Blog and My Tech Experience
Hey there,
I am here again and I hope to get here more often than in my "previous" blog experience...I moved to Madrid almost three months ago to start my MBA at Instituto de Empresa and, if everythings go well, I expect to finish my studies at the end of December...2009. After that, who knows...
I decided to re-start this blog after an Information Systems class we had this past week in which Professor Dans "suggested" us to build a presence in the web where we can expose part of what we are learning in his class (including assignments!).
I should admit I am very interested in this class, mainly because of my ignorance in the subject and, should admit again, my disinterest in new technologies apart from e-mail and news access. I consider this is a good opportunity to learn on the topic, activity I would not practice by myself.
Before start writing, I was remembering how I perceived internet access when I discovered its existence and the day I first got "wired". I was 17 years old when my brother told me he was using "his" PC to get to the internet via the home land, of course, phone. He was 12 years old at that time...I did not pay much attention because I was more interested in playing soccer and going out with friends (who, as you may imagine, did not even had heard about the word "internet" either at the time). What I do remember is when the phone bill arrived two months later and my parents were not able to understand the reason of such an increase in the amount due...
Two years after this event, being already 19 years old, I was in college and had to ask my brother for help to get "there" so that I would be able to get info for a class. However, my access was pretty sporadic until I did a trip abroad along with 3 friends in 2000 and one of them had an e-mail account! As soon as I came back from that trip I took a one week class on "internet access, its advantages and something else" promoted.
I am here again and I hope to get here more often than in my "previous" blog experience...I moved to Madrid almost three months ago to start my MBA at Instituto de Empresa and, if everythings go well, I expect to finish my studies at the end of December...2009. After that, who knows...
I decided to re-start this blog after an Information Systems class we had this past week in which Professor Dans "suggested" us to build a presence in the web where we can expose part of what we are learning in his class (including assignments!).
I should admit I am very interested in this class, mainly because of my ignorance in the subject and, should admit again, my disinterest in new technologies apart from e-mail and news access. I consider this is a good opportunity to learn on the topic, activity I would not practice by myself.
Before start writing, I was remembering how I perceived internet access when I discovered its existence and the day I first got "wired". I was 17 years old when my brother told me he was using "his" PC to get to the internet via the home land, of course, phone. He was 12 years old at that time...I did not pay much attention because I was more interested in playing soccer and going out with friends (who, as you may imagine, did not even had heard about the word "internet" either at the time). What I do remember is when the phone bill arrived two months later and my parents were not able to understand the reason of such an increase in the amount due...
Two years after this event, being already 19 years old, I was in college and had to ask my brother for help to get "there" so that I would be able to get info for a class. However, my access was pretty sporadic until I did a trip abroad along with 3 friends in 2000 and one of them had an e-mail account! As soon as I came back from that trip I took a one week class on "internet access, its advantages and something else" promoted.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Contradicciones
El gobierno termina de anunciar que habra aumentos en las tarifas de electricidad para los que mas tienen y, con esos aumentos, comenzaran a reducirse los subsidios al sector. La realidad los atropello porque el nivel de gasto publico, direccionado en gran parte a subsidiar energia, sobrepasa los ingresos.
Algunos podran decir "mas vale tarde que nunca", pero asi y todo quizas ya sea demasiado tarde. Ahora el golpe de las nuevas tarifas electricas, que todavia hay que ver a cuanto llegan, va a pegar en los sectores medios que han comenzado a disminuir su consumo porque a los ahorros se los comio la inflacion.
El caso del INDEC parece no se va a destapar. A quien le importa en este pais que el caso de manipulacion de indices estadisticos lo denuncie el FMI; mas bien todo lo contrario, seria "un nuevo ataque del imperio" porque no los dejamos hacer negocios. Lo que yo me pregunto es cuanto tardaremos en conocer el verdadero nivel del superavit fiscal primario. Hoy para simular que sigue por encima del 3% del PIB se estan retrasando obras publicas, pagos a proveedores del estado y distribucion de fondos a las provincias...
Algunos podran decir "mas vale tarde que nunca", pero asi y todo quizas ya sea demasiado tarde. Ahora el golpe de las nuevas tarifas electricas, que todavia hay que ver a cuanto llegan, va a pegar en los sectores medios que han comenzado a disminuir su consumo porque a los ahorros se los comio la inflacion.
El caso del INDEC parece no se va a destapar. A quien le importa en este pais que el caso de manipulacion de indices estadisticos lo denuncie el FMI; mas bien todo lo contrario, seria "un nuevo ataque del imperio" porque no los dejamos hacer negocios. Lo que yo me pregunto es cuanto tardaremos en conocer el verdadero nivel del superavit fiscal primario. Hoy para simular que sigue por encima del 3% del PIB se estan retrasando obras publicas, pagos a proveedores del estado y distribucion de fondos a las provincias...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
¿Massa = Lousteau?
Si bien todavía es temprano para dar opiniones respecto a si el gobierno cambiará de rumbo, sí creo que Sergio Massa puede ser un nuevo Lousteau, para un lado o para el otro. Esto es, Massa puede hacer lo que Lousteau no pudo, no supo o no quiso, y darle más coherencia a las políticas y formas de actuar del gobierno kirchnerista.
O, por el contrario, que la marea devidista se lo lleve por delante, quedar como el nuevo joven títere que no maneja ni mueve nada y terminar renunciando. Una diferencia importante es que Massa en caso de renunciar vuelve a la intendencia de Tigre ya que el muy vivo pidió licencia. Mientras tanto, ¿alguien sabe donde está Martín?
O, por el contrario, que la marea devidista se lo lleve por delante, quedar como el nuevo joven títere que no maneja ni mueve nada y terminar renunciando. Una diferencia importante es que Massa en caso de renunciar vuelve a la intendencia de Tigre ya que el muy vivo pidió licencia. Mientras tanto, ¿alguien sabe donde está Martín?
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Y ahora y ahora...
...parece decirle Cobos al gobierno nacional, del cual forma parte.
Alguien se acuerdo cuando el vicepresidente fue "cascoteado" verbalmente por el jefe de gabinete de ministros y por Aníbal Fernández?
Lo que viene, lo que viene...se pueden hacer mil conjeturas:
1) El gobierno deroga la resolución 125l, que aún sigue en pie pero es muy vulnerable ante la Justicia. Es decir, si un chacarero se presenta a un juez seguro le van a dar la razón y la retención a pagar será la anterior al 11 de marzo (35%).
2) El gobierno no deroga la 125 y se arriesga a entrar en conflicto con la Justicia en el futuro desconociendo sus decisiones.
3) El gobierno deroga la 125 e inmediatamente llama a los representantes de la mesa de enlace a negociar un plan de retenciones móviles nuevo, aunque con reformas ya previstas en la ley que salió de diputados y bajó Cobos.
4) Quién sabe...
En los primeros días, me juego por la opción 4. Hay que ver como reacciona Néstor y escucharla hoy a la tarde, si va, a CFK en el Chaco.
Una vez más, es todo tan imprevisible...
Alguien se acuerdo cuando el vicepresidente fue "cascoteado" verbalmente por el jefe de gabinete de ministros y por Aníbal Fernández?
Lo que viene, lo que viene...se pueden hacer mil conjeturas:
1) El gobierno deroga la resolución 125l, que aún sigue en pie pero es muy vulnerable ante la Justicia. Es decir, si un chacarero se presenta a un juez seguro le van a dar la razón y la retención a pagar será la anterior al 11 de marzo (35%).
2) El gobierno no deroga la 125 y se arriesga a entrar en conflicto con la Justicia en el futuro desconociendo sus decisiones.
3) El gobierno deroga la 125 e inmediatamente llama a los representantes de la mesa de enlace a negociar un plan de retenciones móviles nuevo, aunque con reformas ya previstas en la ley que salió de diputados y bajó Cobos.
4) Quién sabe...
En los primeros días, me juego por la opción 4. Hay que ver como reacciona Néstor y escucharla hoy a la tarde, si va, a CFK en el Chaco.
Una vez más, es todo tan imprevisible...
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Haciendo Agua...
...subterranea. Asi definiria yo el significado de esta muy buena nota de Critica de la Argentina respecto a como se va cayendo el modelo kirchnerista de gestion.
Y digo que refleja subterraneamente los problemas del modelo economico actual que no son visibles, es decir, que la mayoria de la opinion publica no ve, desconoce, debido a que es dificil acceder a esa informacion. La inflacion, la inseguridad y, en menor medida, la corrupcion si pueden ser "apreciados" por la sociedad; son hechos que se sienten todos los dias (la corrupcion se lee y tambien se siente en los organismos publicos).
Este problema de desfinanciamiento de Cammesa como consecuencia de la falta de inversiones en el sector + no actualizacion de tarifas + arreglos entre funcionarios y sector publico por doquier = una cuenta que vamos a pagar y sufrir todos.
Cuales son los otros sectores "subterraneos" en problemas? Yo no tengo ni idea, pero se me ocurren: transportes (aereo, terrestre, fluvial, pedestre...), salud (como estan las obras sociales sindicales?) y otros servicios publicos (agua, gas?). Seguramente hay mas sectores con problemas a futuro por inconsistencias presentes, no me salen ahora y tampoco tengo tanta info. Pero que los hay, los hay.
Se veia venir...
Y digo que refleja subterraneamente los problemas del modelo economico actual que no son visibles, es decir, que la mayoria de la opinion publica no ve, desconoce, debido a que es dificil acceder a esa informacion. La inflacion, la inseguridad y, en menor medida, la corrupcion si pueden ser "apreciados" por la sociedad; son hechos que se sienten todos los dias (la corrupcion se lee y tambien se siente en los organismos publicos).
Este problema de desfinanciamiento de Cammesa como consecuencia de la falta de inversiones en el sector + no actualizacion de tarifas + arreglos entre funcionarios y sector publico por doquier = una cuenta que vamos a pagar y sufrir todos.
Cuales son los otros sectores "subterraneos" en problemas? Yo no tengo ni idea, pero se me ocurren: transportes (aereo, terrestre, fluvial, pedestre...), salud (como estan las obras sociales sindicales?) y otros servicios publicos (agua, gas?). Seguramente hay mas sectores con problemas a futuro por inconsistencias presentes, no me salen ahora y tampoco tengo tanta info. Pero que los hay, los hay.
Se veia venir...
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Algo es Algo
En medio del conflicto gobierno - campo que nos rompe tanto, salió que las grandes cerealeras había comprado a fines del año pasado, antes del primer aumento de retenciones de noviembre, un gran porcentaje de la producción que se levantaría en marzo. Esas compras se registraron con las retenciones del momento y, entonces, zafaron de los aumentos a las retenciones posteriores.
Por suerte para nosotros, argentinos!!, está Ricardo Echegaray, viejo y peludo y nunca bien venerado, a cargo del burocrático ONCA, que les está cobrando tamaña avivada (más vale tarde...)
Ya no sé quién es más vivo en este país.
Por suerte para nosotros, argentinos!!, está Ricardo Echegaray, viejo y peludo y nunca bien venerado, a cargo del burocrático ONCA, que les está cobrando tamaña avivada (más vale tarde...)
Ya no sé quién es más vivo en este país.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Expectativas
Hoy estuve repasando un poco mis archivos respecto a lo que pensaba seria el destino politico-economico de Argentina hace un anho atras. Lamentablemente, mis expectativas de entonces coinciden bastante con la situacion actual; la inflacion sigue para arriba y empezamos a pagar el costo, la falta de energia se profundiza (si calentas tu casa a gas, tardas mas o menos que hace tres inviernos atras?) y no hay incentivos para ahorrar, a la inseguridad ya nos recontra aconstumbramos, la violencia, la intolerancia, y sigue...
La cuestion es que esperar de aca para adelante, que expectativas tengo para los proximos 6 meses (todo es tan volatil, que en ese periodo de tiempo somos capaces de pasar al paraiso o al infierno).
En lo politico se complica la cosa, me parece: los K, con la macroeconomia un poco mas complicada gracias a sus propios horrores, van a cosechar su siembra. Es decir, el mismisimo peronismo le va a pasar la factura del ninguneo que sufrieron sus dirigentes muchas veces (alguien recuerda la transversalidad?) y del sometimiento via reparto de plata que promociono NK durante su mandato (una "Ley" de coparticipacion please!). Asi las cosas, los K van a tener que negociar y, con la economia enfriandose (o doce?), el poder pasara poco a poco a los gobernadores y caciques del peronismo, que nada tienen que ver con el pejotismo por cierto.
La oposicion, por mas que nos pese, no tiene organizacion ni fuerza suficiente para gobernar. Este es un pais peronista y los pocos gobiernos no peronistas que hubo desde el 45 para aca no terminaron su mandato...
En lo economico, la inercia inflacionaria ya esta haciendo fuerza via aumentos de precios = aumentos de salarios = aumento de precios, y asi. Logicamente, cuando llega a cierto nivel, la inflacion actua como un freno al consumo (con que plata vas a consumir si te la gastaste toda en alquiler, comida y transporte?) y la economia se estanca...pero la inflacion sigue su tendencia. No hay un solo incentivo para invertir: falta previsibilidad (cuanto aumentaran los precios de aca a 6 meses?, cambiaran las reglas y leyes en el camino?). Hay gasto publico improductivo que ha hecho al superavit fiscal primario, clave en las cuentas del gobierno, depender de las retenciones (91% del superavit) y no existe un solo, misero, motivo para que los empresarios del sector energetico inviertan: esta no es la primera vez que no hay nafta ni gasoil.
La deuda publica esta en niveles similares a la de 2001 como porcentaje del PIB y no encontramos a quien venderle bonos para financiarla mas alla de Venezuela que nos cobra un interes del 13% mientras Brasil paga menos de 6% entre los privados. Ese el costo de hacernos los machos y de no cumplir con nuestros compromisos sintiendonos orgullosos de tal comportamiento. Ejemplo (y me pongo como CFK, ensenhandote, chiquitin!): si vos me prestas 1000 pesos a 20 dias o un anho o lo que se te ocurra y yo no te lo devuelvo ni tampoco quiero negociar con vos una forma de pago, vos me prestarias 1000 pesos a los 2/3 anhos cuando yo de los primeros 1000 prestados te devolvi apenas el 25% (o sea, me prestaste mil y te devolvi 250!)? y si ademas te hago trampa con los intereses a pagar porque no los indexo como me comprometi (y eso que te los puse en un nivel bajo en relacion al riesgo de volver a fallarte)?
Vayamos a las inversiones externas, de la gente o empresas que no son argentinos. Que imagen te crees que damos?? vos irias a invertir en un pais con los problemas que se ven en la tele?
La crisis del campo, por asi llamarla, no hizo mas que juntar el descontento de una gran cantidad de argentinos. Los caceroleros no salen por el campo; ellos salen por la inseguridad, por la inflacion (para mi el gran motivador), porque no quieren que los griten ni sermoneen. CFK y NK unieron en su lucha por sostener de una medida, el aumento a las retenciones (sin considerar desde aqui si era necesario o inncecesario, justo o injusto) a todos a quienes tienen algo para reclamar y eran incapaces o no encontraban el medio para expresar sus inquietudes.
Esta pelicula ya la viste?
La cuestion es que esperar de aca para adelante, que expectativas tengo para los proximos 6 meses (todo es tan volatil, que en ese periodo de tiempo somos capaces de pasar al paraiso o al infierno).
En lo politico se complica la cosa, me parece: los K, con la macroeconomia un poco mas complicada gracias a sus propios horrores, van a cosechar su siembra. Es decir, el mismisimo peronismo le va a pasar la factura del ninguneo que sufrieron sus dirigentes muchas veces (alguien recuerda la transversalidad?) y del sometimiento via reparto de plata que promociono NK durante su mandato (una "Ley" de coparticipacion please!). Asi las cosas, los K van a tener que negociar y, con la economia enfriandose (o doce?), el poder pasara poco a poco a los gobernadores y caciques del peronismo, que nada tienen que ver con el pejotismo por cierto.
La oposicion, por mas que nos pese, no tiene organizacion ni fuerza suficiente para gobernar. Este es un pais peronista y los pocos gobiernos no peronistas que hubo desde el 45 para aca no terminaron su mandato...
En lo economico, la inercia inflacionaria ya esta haciendo fuerza via aumentos de precios = aumentos de salarios = aumento de precios, y asi. Logicamente, cuando llega a cierto nivel, la inflacion actua como un freno al consumo (con que plata vas a consumir si te la gastaste toda en alquiler, comida y transporte?) y la economia se estanca...pero la inflacion sigue su tendencia. No hay un solo incentivo para invertir: falta previsibilidad (cuanto aumentaran los precios de aca a 6 meses?, cambiaran las reglas y leyes en el camino?). Hay gasto publico improductivo que ha hecho al superavit fiscal primario, clave en las cuentas del gobierno, depender de las retenciones (91% del superavit) y no existe un solo, misero, motivo para que los empresarios del sector energetico inviertan: esta no es la primera vez que no hay nafta ni gasoil.
La deuda publica esta en niveles similares a la de 2001 como porcentaje del PIB y no encontramos a quien venderle bonos para financiarla mas alla de Venezuela que nos cobra un interes del 13% mientras Brasil paga menos de 6% entre los privados. Ese el costo de hacernos los machos y de no cumplir con nuestros compromisos sintiendonos orgullosos de tal comportamiento. Ejemplo (y me pongo como CFK, ensenhandote, chiquitin!): si vos me prestas 1000 pesos a 20 dias o un anho o lo que se te ocurra y yo no te lo devuelvo ni tampoco quiero negociar con vos una forma de pago, vos me prestarias 1000 pesos a los 2/3 anhos cuando yo de los primeros 1000 prestados te devolvi apenas el 25% (o sea, me prestaste mil y te devolvi 250!)? y si ademas te hago trampa con los intereses a pagar porque no los indexo como me comprometi (y eso que te los puse en un nivel bajo en relacion al riesgo de volver a fallarte)?
Vayamos a las inversiones externas, de la gente o empresas que no son argentinos. Que imagen te crees que damos?? vos irias a invertir en un pais con los problemas que se ven en la tele?
La crisis del campo, por asi llamarla, no hizo mas que juntar el descontento de una gran cantidad de argentinos. Los caceroleros no salen por el campo; ellos salen por la inseguridad, por la inflacion (para mi el gran motivador), porque no quieren que los griten ni sermoneen. CFK y NK unieron en su lucha por sostener de una medida, el aumento a las retenciones (sin considerar desde aqui si era necesario o inncecesario, justo o injusto) a todos a quienes tienen algo para reclamar y eran incapaces o no encontraban el medio para expresar sus inquietudes.
Esta pelicula ya la viste?
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