Hace unos días tuve la "oportunidad" de hablar con un chico que recientemente abrió lo que podríamos denominar un almacén de barrio. Está ubicado justo a dos casas de distancia de la mia y anteriormente pertenecía a una vecina muy conocida...el local estuvo cerrado por, al menos, año y medio.
Me pregunto cómo hacer funcionar eficientemente este negocio cuando está "rodeado" por un supermercado a menos de 50 mts y sobre una calle mucho más transitada y un maxiquiosco a 75 mts. Cuáles son las ventajas que tiene este almacén y cuáles son las desventajas? cómo potenciar las primeras y minimizar las segundas? qué target de clientes, if anyone, debe buscar? y qué mercaderías y con qué márgenes debe manejarse?
Puntos positivos: frente a la sede del Banco Nación, horarios extendidos (más que el súper del barrio), atención simpática, "recuerdo" de anterior dueña.
Puntos negativos: cercanía con el ya mencionado supermercado, hace más de un año que no abría sus puertas (costumbre), espacio reducido que afecta el mix de productos, desconocimiento de tipo de cliente que podría comprar allí por parte del nuevo dueño.
Qué haría yo:
1) considerando el poco espacio "a la vista", intentaría potenciar los productos que más "salen"; es decir, aquellos que, con el tiempo, noto que son los más demandados.
2) creo que no es conveniente competir en precio con el super vecino, asique intentaría elevar el margen por producto; esto es, si un yogurth me cuesta en el super $ 3, lo pondría en mi almacén a $ 3,15. Intentaría llevar el margen hasta el límite aguantable por el cliente. Muchas veces quienes me compran lo hacen de apuro o porque el súper está cerrado.
3) al mismo tiempo, me concentraría en vender aquellos productos que me dan mejor margen. Ejemplo: si el café X me da un mejor retorno que el café Y, yo vendo café X. Si el cliente busca precio, no viene a mi almacén.
4) como está ubicado en una ciudad chica, intentaría que mi stock se moviera constantemente; de esta forma, no mantendría un inventario alto porque seguramente necesito elevar mi caja y reducir mis gastos. Esto sería en principio dado que podría estar perdiendo descuentos por compras más grandes a los proveedores.
5) no dejaría de lado las ofertas. es posible que un producto que tengo en venta no tiene movimiento y su fecha de vencimiento esté cercana...pues lo promociono a buen precio, le saco todavía un margen y aprendo que no debo volver a ofrecerlo (voy conociendo a mis clientes).
6) Analizaría bien cuáles son los horarios en que tengo más ventas. Vale la pena extender mi horario media hora más o cerrar tan tarde?
7) finalmente, y a modo de prueba, probaría hacer algo distinto...ofrecer algo más. Podrían ser unas pizzetas a buen precio preparadas "in house" para los empleados del banco o café de máquina vía delivery para los negocios de la zona (banco, negocio de ropa, veterinaria, etc.).
Cuando se me ocurra algo más, lo escribo...no tengo información del manejo de caja, descuentos y tiempos de pago a proveedores, si vende fiado, etc.
Sí noté que tiene para vender vía tarjeta de débito. Y me pregunto: cuantás operaciones por esta via hace a la semana? cuál es el costo de mantener el posnet?
Saludos!
Friday, February 10, 2012
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Escenario Politico Argentino, Que Se Arme!!
Si, desde la debacle de 2001-2002 que no se veia un escenario politico tan interesante ante elecciones parlamentarias. En breve, se estan armando tres frentes: el peronismo Kirchnerista, actualmente gobernando, el PROperonismo, una suerte de alianza entre el PRO de Macri y los peronistas no kirchneristas (auspiciados en las sombras por Duhalde) y la sociedad Seguidores de Carrio - UCR.
Mi opinion: creo que de las tres opciones hay solo dos capaces de gobernar y ellas son las dos que incluyen peronistas "potentes" en sus formulas (el kirchnerismo y el PROperonismo). La opcion Lilita suena linda, pero, creo, no deja de ser un rejuntado similar a la Alianza (que para mi en su momento fue una buena idea), que padecio de falta de poder con los riesgos que eso tiene con los peronistas en frente. Ademas, para aquellos que critican a los peronistas, la alianza que armo Carrio tiene algunos "elementos" bastantes irritables, ligados a hechos de corrupcion y arreglos impudicos.
Lo positivo es, dicho ya, que el escenario politico se arma con tres opciones diferentes y con similares oportunidades de triunfo, al menos por ahora. Eso significa que, si la cosa sale bien, el sistema politico comienza a reestructurarse y a funcionar nuevamente. Ya no habra solo una propuesta "ganadora" como sucede desde 2002.
Veremos...y en octubre sabremos...
Mi opinion: creo que de las tres opciones hay solo dos capaces de gobernar y ellas son las dos que incluyen peronistas "potentes" en sus formulas (el kirchnerismo y el PROperonismo). La opcion Lilita suena linda, pero, creo, no deja de ser un rejuntado similar a la Alianza (que para mi en su momento fue una buena idea), que padecio de falta de poder con los riesgos que eso tiene con los peronistas en frente. Ademas, para aquellos que critican a los peronistas, la alianza que armo Carrio tiene algunos "elementos" bastantes irritables, ligados a hechos de corrupcion y arreglos impudicos.
Lo positivo es, dicho ya, que el escenario politico se arma con tres opciones diferentes y con similares oportunidades de triunfo, al menos por ahora. Eso significa que, si la cosa sale bien, el sistema politico comienza a reestructurarse y a funcionar nuevamente. Ya no habra solo una propuesta "ganadora" como sucede desde 2002.
Veremos...y en octubre sabremos...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
The Economic Downturn
Yesterday afternoon I had an interesting but briefly conversation with two persons from one of the two main banks in Spain. Suddenly, and without "anestesya" (something I would have needed of right after coming from an exhausting "Quant" exam), they asked me the causes of the economic crisis.
As you may imagine, my brain was burning, and I started with what I think were the "causes": the story is that to stimulate the economy back in 2001 (or 2002?), Alan The Great and his "corte" at the FED decided to slash interest rates several times up to 1% in the US. The reduction of interest rates has a lag in its effects though but it enhance expectations on people to go and get a loan either to buy a house or to pay the credit card debt (which at the end, allow them to finance new acquisitions). The "stimulus" cut the vicious circle of pessimism making private consumption to react and, therefore, companies go buy new machines to satisfy customers' needs.
From what I see, the reduction in interest rates along with a precarious risk analysis of loan-takers created a bubble in consumption and real state investments that burst about eight months ago and that now we are "enjoying" so much! As mentioned earlier, the cut in interest rates has a lag period (usually around 9 months): as soon as the expansive effect starts it is difficult to stop and that is why it is so important to calibrate monetary policy. Well, when consumption increases too much guess who comes: inflation! (yeap, we argentines know about it...sadly!)
Once again, when the FED reacted to the increases in expected inflation it was too late: the world was consuming...and growing...but too much. Interest rates were increased with the goal of moderating growth and, hence, inflation. And when the adjustment in interest rates came into effect consumers, mainly in the US, find out difficult to afford their debts (mortgages, credit cards, etc) and have to reduce consumption in other stuff (a new car, a cinema ticket) to pay them. As a consequence, the economy starts to cool off, business are affected due to lower sales and have to fired employees, many of them that got a loan and suddenly lost their jobs...and left their houses to the bank.
Why the crisis spread out in the financial system? Well, nowadays the financial system is so developed and there are so many financial instruments to "play" with...Let's suppose that 1 million consumers with bad credit ratings got a mortgage loan with Bank 1. After that, Bank 1 takes 2/3 of those loans, divide them in four and sell them in the market. Banks 2, 3, 4,...,n do the same. Since financial markets are so integrated investment banks, that do not give mortgages, and other commercial banks from other countries buy those trenches expecting a good return. Then, the "domino" effect comes into the picture: as soon as mortgages owners stop paying their loans they affect not only Bank 1, who lent them the money, but also the "real" and new creditors. That is what is called "toxic assets". And that is one of the main initiators of the crisis.
As you may imagine, my brain was burning, and I started with what I think were the "causes": the story is that to stimulate the economy back in 2001 (or 2002?), Alan The Great and his "corte" at the FED decided to slash interest rates several times up to 1% in the US. The reduction of interest rates has a lag in its effects though but it enhance expectations on people to go and get a loan either to buy a house or to pay the credit card debt (which at the end, allow them to finance new acquisitions). The "stimulus" cut the vicious circle of pessimism making private consumption to react and, therefore, companies go buy new machines to satisfy customers' needs.
From what I see, the reduction in interest rates along with a precarious risk analysis of loan-takers created a bubble in consumption and real state investments that burst about eight months ago and that now we are "enjoying" so much! As mentioned earlier, the cut in interest rates has a lag period (usually around 9 months): as soon as the expansive effect starts it is difficult to stop and that is why it is so important to calibrate monetary policy. Well, when consumption increases too much guess who comes: inflation! (yeap, we argentines know about it...sadly!)
Once again, when the FED reacted to the increases in expected inflation it was too late: the world was consuming...and growing...but too much. Interest rates were increased with the goal of moderating growth and, hence, inflation. And when the adjustment in interest rates came into effect consumers, mainly in the US, find out difficult to afford their debts (mortgages, credit cards, etc) and have to reduce consumption in other stuff (a new car, a cinema ticket) to pay them. As a consequence, the economy starts to cool off, business are affected due to lower sales and have to fired employees, many of them that got a loan and suddenly lost their jobs...and left their houses to the bank.
Why the crisis spread out in the financial system? Well, nowadays the financial system is so developed and there are so many financial instruments to "play" with...Let's suppose that 1 million consumers with bad credit ratings got a mortgage loan with Bank 1. After that, Bank 1 takes 2/3 of those loans, divide them in four and sell them in the market. Banks 2, 3, 4,...,n do the same. Since financial markets are so integrated investment banks, that do not give mortgages, and other commercial banks from other countries buy those trenches expecting a good return. Then, the "domino" effect comes into the picture: as soon as mortgages owners stop paying their loans they affect not only Bank 1, who lent them the money, but also the "real" and new creditors. That is what is called "toxic assets". And that is one of the main initiators of the crisis.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Closed
This weekend is just for studying, studying and studying...nothing new though but the "big" difference is that finals are coming:
Monday: marketing case + mid-term assignment (analysis of a cosmetic brand)
Tuesday: Financial Accounting
Wednesday: Quantitative Analysis
Thursday: Managerial Economics (basic micro and macro)
Friday: Information Systems
Sure I will survive, no matter exams go well or bad, but am doing my best...
Finally, I have an extra activity on Wednesday afternoon that will take me three to four hours. Unfortunately, I can tell because of what we call "cabala" (no, it is not a date!). Hopefully in the future you will know...
Monday: marketing case + mid-term assignment (analysis of a cosmetic brand)
Tuesday: Financial Accounting
Wednesday: Quantitative Analysis
Thursday: Managerial Economics (basic micro and macro)
Friday: Information Systems
Sure I will survive, no matter exams go well or bad, but am doing my best...
Finally, I have an extra activity on Wednesday afternoon that will take me three to four hours. Unfortunately, I can tell because of what we call "cabala" (no, it is not a date!). Hopefully in the future you will know...
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Casa del Libro
So far a bit different from Buenos Aires, the competition among booksellers is pretty concentrated in Madrid. In Buenos Aires, though the offer is becoming more concentrated, one can find some "independent" booksellers in Avenida Corrientes and in Avenida Santa Fe. However, I must recognize, I hardly go to those; I usually buy in libraries located in shopping malls that belong to large bookseller chains. And I think that is the trend...
The idea of this post is to discuss a new case for our Information Systems class. As the title refers, it is related to Casa del Libro. This bookseller chain competes against general stores such as El Corte Ingles (where you can buy food and clothes and bikes and books and...) and FNAC (mainly electronics). However, "nobleza obliga", Casa del Libro is owned by Grupo Planeta, the main editorial group in Spain and the seventh in the world; so that, it is not alone in this world.
The case refers to the launch of www.casadellbro.com in September 2001, just months before the "dot-com" crash and days before the 9/11 attacks. The goal behind the launching of the website was to increase Casa del Libro market share and become the leader in the Spanish book market. In 1999, the company had hired a consulting firm to develop the business plan and got an agreement with AOL, which was just launching its operations in the Spanish ISP market in 2001.
Casa del Libro had been selling books online since 1995 through an artisan website, and operations required a great deal of manual processing. The "big bosses" of Grupo Planeta decided to take the Internet wave, invest a lot of money in a state-of-the-art platform, go for an alliance with AOL and take over the online book market planet(a)!
However, in September 2001 they discovered that the UNIX platform could not be adapted due a mistake in the design phase, that AOL did not meet its target in the ISP market, that terrorist attacked the Twin Tower in NYC bringing the world to an economic recession, and, la "frutilla del postre", the "dot-com" bubble...burst!
THE DECISION
Grupo Planeta's management had to decide whether continue with the idea of launching the website and run it with the UNIX platform or switch to a cheaper Microsoft platform. The UNIX platform needed a re-design process but guaranteed high availability in case of high traffic and a large number of transactions; it implied also high maintenance costs (plus the expenses for the re-designing process). On the other hand, the Microsoft platform had lower maintenance and development costs but was not an state-of-the-art server nor as powerful as UNIX.
Considering the context, I would switch to the Microsoft platform. Though most analysts forecasted growth for business through online services, I think that at the time it was very difficult to predict how the e-economy would react to the "dot-com" crash in terms of reliability in business transactions, and, more important, when and how the "real" economy would react to the economic recession after the 9/11 attacks. In such a context, the best idea would be to retreat to a "wait and see" position. In any case, the evolution of online sales via the Microsoft platform would give an idea to managers about how to react and whether to switch back to the UNIX platform. In addition, it would be very difficult to raise the issue about investing lots of money in an Internet business while the holding company, characterized by its conservatism, was focused on reducing costs to face the crisis and the crash of the "dot-com" era had just occurred.
Let's see what our professor tell us tomorrow about this story...
The idea of this post is to discuss a new case for our Information Systems class. As the title refers, it is related to Casa del Libro. This bookseller chain competes against general stores such as El Corte Ingles (where you can buy food and clothes and bikes and books and...) and FNAC (mainly electronics). However, "nobleza obliga", Casa del Libro is owned by Grupo Planeta, the main editorial group in Spain and the seventh in the world; so that, it is not alone in this world.
The case refers to the launch of www.casadellbro.com in September 2001, just months before the "dot-com" crash and days before the 9/11 attacks. The goal behind the launching of the website was to increase Casa del Libro market share and become the leader in the Spanish book market. In 1999, the company had hired a consulting firm to develop the business plan and got an agreement with AOL, which was just launching its operations in the Spanish ISP market in 2001.
Casa del Libro had been selling books online since 1995 through an artisan website, and operations required a great deal of manual processing. The "big bosses" of Grupo Planeta decided to take the Internet wave, invest a lot of money in a state-of-the-art platform, go for an alliance with AOL and take over the online book market planet(a)!
However, in September 2001 they discovered that the UNIX platform could not be adapted due a mistake in the design phase, that AOL did not meet its target in the ISP market, that terrorist attacked the Twin Tower in NYC bringing the world to an economic recession, and, la "frutilla del postre", the "dot-com" bubble...burst!
THE DECISION
Grupo Planeta's management had to decide whether continue with the idea of launching the website and run it with the UNIX platform or switch to a cheaper Microsoft platform. The UNIX platform needed a re-design process but guaranteed high availability in case of high traffic and a large number of transactions; it implied also high maintenance costs (plus the expenses for the re-designing process). On the other hand, the Microsoft platform had lower maintenance and development costs but was not an state-of-the-art server nor as powerful as UNIX.
Considering the context, I would switch to the Microsoft platform. Though most analysts forecasted growth for business through online services, I think that at the time it was very difficult to predict how the e-economy would react to the "dot-com" crash in terms of reliability in business transactions, and, more important, when and how the "real" economy would react to the economic recession after the 9/11 attacks. In such a context, the best idea would be to retreat to a "wait and see" position. In any case, the evolution of online sales via the Microsoft platform would give an idea to managers about how to react and whether to switch back to the UNIX platform. In addition, it would be very difficult to raise the issue about investing lots of money in an Internet business while the holding company, characterized by its conservatism, was focused on reducing costs to face the crisis and the crash of the "dot-com" era had just occurred.
Let's see what our professor tell us tomorrow about this story...
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